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Why would that be probable? People on average are fantastically bad at getting probabilities right.
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Historical precedent repeated over and over, and the US ties to DoW work, and the national security implications. It's actually the Occam's Razor explanation if you know the history.

Only if you ignore baseline rates. Which brings us back to my original point.

4 major AI services all had outages around the same time.

Gemini, too.

https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/09/four-major-ai-models-suff...




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