The frontier labs will do their best to prevent this from happening. Their financial model won't work if people start running open-weight models on their local hardware.
This is why banning Chinese open-weight AI models is a major policy debate in Washington. The labs can't survive log-term without subsidies, and a ban can act as a subsidy.
I concur, that this could be a possiblity and it definitely seems now.
Though my bet would be, if USA will go ultra protectionist in this regard - in 10-20 years most world will run Chinese LLMs and hardware for this purpose.
This is why banning Chinese open-weight AI models is a major policy debate in Washington. The labs can't survive log-term without subsidies, and a ban can act as a subsidy.